August 2026: Postpaid Churn 1.12 % → 1.41 % Led by Region East at 2.06 %, Downgrades +63.85 % With the Cohort's ARPU −26.97 %, Fibre Gross Adds +21.41 % on Flat Churn — Net Mobile Adds Turned Negative
Assumptions strip
Month-over-month comparison (August vs July 2026) was used; churn is a monthly rate on the opening base. Network metrics are outside this agent's scope and do not appear; nothing in this brief links a churn event to a network event. The price list is not in this model.
The postpaid base lost more subscribers in August than it gained — net adds +8,200 in July, −11,400 in August: 68,530 disconnects against 54,430 in July took monthly churn from 1.12 % to 1.41 %, with Region East at 2.06 % and carrying 26.88 % of the disconnects on 18.40 % of the base; 47.00 % of the disconnects are port-outs. Inside the base, plan downgrades rose 63.85 % while upgrades fell, and the downgrading cohort now pays 17.60 € against 24.10 €. Postpaid ARPU still rose 1.90 %, so the revenue line has not shown the loss yet. Fibre moved the other way — gross adds up 21.41 % on unchanged churn — and stands at 38.41 % penetration. A sentence attributing the downgrades to a price rise was returned once by the claim check; the rewrite states the migration without a cause and passed, because the price list is not in the model.
— Run: monthly, the workspace's approved model, data complete through 2026-09-02. Guard Ledger: held 0 after one coached rewrite — candidate f-02 draft carried after the July price rise, gate 4 returned it as unevidenced causality, the rewrite dropped the clause and passed; not_selected 0; duplicate 0.